Southern California is Making a Comeback!
February 24, 2016


It’s the fourth quarter and SoCal is down by three touchdowns. The clock is ticking and 17 million people are wondering if this will be a disappointing finish.  Don’t give up yet, this is the rain forecast for Sunday and Monday with more on the way.

With one month to go before one of the strongest El Ninos on record fades, the question remains: How much more rain and snow is on the way, and why has Southern California been so dry?

2015_El Nino So Far

Let’s start by going back in time and look at the El Nino rain forecast for winter. A couple of things stick out. First, notice how Southern California, Texas and Florida are all forecast to receive an above average amount of rain. The Pacific Northwest is dry and Northern California is a toss up. All of the previously strong El Ninos showed no correlation to NoCal, it was 50/50.


This is what has happened so far this winter. The bonus is most of the water sheds and reservoirs, which are located in Northern California and provide water for the entire state, are filling up. But Southern California has been incredibly dry, prompting people to ask: Where is El Nino? I call this forecast the 17-million person “bust.”

What is fascinating to me is what is happening this winter in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle, Washington and Portland have recorded their wettest winters ever! Record keeping goes back to 1894.  So the question is why.


The El Nino-fueled moisture is in the Pacific, as predicted, but the jet stream has moved the rain into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. The dry slot has been Southern California and Southern Arizona. But why is this blocking ridge of high pressure here?


You’ve heard us say, “Every El Nino is different.” And that is certainly the case this year. The warmest water in the Pacific Ocean isn’t near South America like it was in previously strong El Nino patterns. The warmest water is farther west, south of the Hawaiian Islands.


That warmth is creating a large area of low pressure and rising air.


In turn, the sinking air has created a large area of high pressure keeping the rain away from Southern California.

The rain is back in SoCal March 6th and the longer term climate models have a wet March but these same models also showed a furry of storms in February and obviously that hasn’t happened. So, what do you think will happen?  You can Tweet or Facebook me at: @anthonynbcla.

Time is running out, the clock is ticking and 17 million people are wondering if SoCal can make a come back.


Turn Around Don’t Drown
April 21, 2010

How deep is this water?  It could be as little as 1 to 2 inches, but looking at the right and left side of the road, it would seem likely that it is much deeper.  Maybe a foot … how about two feet? Maybe a lot more.  The honest answer is, I don’t know — and if you are ever driving and don’t know how deep the water is, don’t drive through it.  Two feet of water will lift up and move most cars; SUVs and trucks don’t do much better. 

The state of Texas leads the nation in flash flooding deaths and most of those occur in cars at night.  Click the above image to check out the 30 second public service announcement on keeping our families safe when it floods. 


The First Time Houston Flooded
September 17, 2009


In April 1837, a lashing flood hit newly-formed Houston. Only a few months later, in early October, a hurricane hit and caused the bayous to rise four feet at Main Street. The very next year, it was incredibly cold. On February 2, 1838, the temperature dropped to 16 degrees and it was 22 degrees on the 16th.

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