Storm in the Gulf, A Child’s Finger Paint

Owen Conflenti described the forecast tracks of what will become tropical storm Lee as a child’s finger painting.  Here’s what happening:  There aren’t any steering currents, so the storm is free to move where it wants.  It’s general motion is northwest into Louisiana; but notice once it gets close, the models move it east, west or south.  A trough may move it east, or high pressure in the Rockies may push it west.  A front moving into Texas may make the motion more southerly.  The lack of consensus illustrates how truly weak all of the steering currents are.     

Our model, that is exclusive to KPRC Local 2, shows Lee as a strong tropical storm or hurricane hitting Central Louisiana.  From here it would move back over water, turn right or turn left.  In this case, our exceptional drought and fire danger would continue. We would not get much rain unless it travels west after Sunday.     

The problem with storms that have a lack of steering and are slow-moving is it can bring a tremendous amount of rain.  Our model shows 10 inches along the southern Louisiana coast through Sunday.  Notice how we don’t have a drop on this track.


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