Congratulations to Alex Arguello, our squirrel watch caption contest winner. His comment, “I’m glad the Wilsons bought a big screen. It’s so much easier to watch Anthony and the crew on Local 2 from here,” wins a prize.
Tornaodes in January
So far this January we’ve had 81 tornadoes, placing us in third place for the most tornadoes in the month of January.
January 2008 had 88 confirmed tornado touch downs. It’s been an incredibly active month.
The red dots represent tornado touch downs in the United States.
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Tornado Surveys & Weekend Forecast
Electricity in the Sky
Sometimes the obvious answer is the correct one.
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The Most Snow
Hotshots@click2houston.com
Photo by: Tony Tarver, Baytown
Eisenhower Park in the morning fog.
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How Well Do You Know Us?
Hotshots Archive #6
Minor Dent in the Drought
2.54″ of rain fell at Hobby Airport in 1955. That record was shattered yesterday. Even so we’ve got a long way to go to get back to normal. For this question I only included rain from 2011 and 2012. This is from the National Weather Service:
Rainfall deficits began shortly after Hurricane Ike in 2008. Southeast Texas rainfall was below normal in 2009 and well below normal in 2010. This drought has been in the making for several years. Despite recent rains, Houston’s Hobby Airport has over a 29-inch rainfall deficit for this year alone and over a 3-foot departure from normal over the last three years. Galveston is suffering a rainfall deficit over 46 inches over the last three years.
HOUSTON HOBBY Normal: 53.96 2009: 52.65 (-1.34) 2010: 47.02 (-6.94) 2011: 23.53 (-29.74) Total Departure: -38.02 HOUSTON Normal: 47.84 2009: 47.01 (-0.83) 2010: 42.72 (-5.12) 2011: 22.06 (-26.49) Total Departure: -32.44 COLLEGE STATION Normal: 39.67 2009: 38.98 (-0.69) 2010: 27.78 (-11.89) 2011: 17.86 (-21.05) Total Departure: -33.63 GALVESTON Normal: 43.84 2009: 37.16 (-6.68) 2010: 33.14 (-10.70) 2011: 20.50 (-29.15) Total Departure: -46.53
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Kelvin-Helmholtz Wave Clouds
This picture was taken in Birmingham, Alabama. These cloud-waves rarely occur because you need almost perfect atmospheric conditions. Much like ocean waves, the air on the tops of these clouds is moving faster than the bottom of the clouds. The clouds near the surface are most likely cold and the wind speeds are light, like fog. Over the low clouds is a warmer and faster-moving layer of air creating the crest, like we see in the ocean.
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Squirrel Watch 2011
Photo by: Stephanie Cyr, Lake Livingston
Caption contest! Person who describes this picture the best wins a Local 2 shirt, a Blue Bell 100 year anniversary book, or Local 2 Morning Show mug. Leave comments here.
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Squirrel Watch 2011 Caption Contest
Texas Drought in Third Place
Why Was There Ice If We Weren’t Below Freezing?
This is a good question from Steve noticing we weren’t officially below freezing Wednesday or Tuesday throughout much of Southeast Texas, but we did have a lot of frost on the ground and ice on the cars.
Official temperature readings are taken 6 feet up so that things that occur on “ground surfaces, or any surface” doesn’t affect the outside temperature. A car that has any moisture on the windows or roof will get what’s called evaporational cooling. Evaporational cooling is similar to perspiration. When you work out your body sweats to cool itself. Moisture being evaporated will make a surface colder. The air temperature may have been 37 degrees this morning, but grass or a car with moisture would have been below 32 degrees. Factors such as these are why it’s colder on surfaces than the surrounding air on a morning like this.
This is also a good example why official temperature reading are taken 6 feet in the air, away from tall buildings, with grass surrounding the weather station. Most temperature records go back to the late 1800s, and accuracy is key to monitor how our environment is changing or not changing. Imagine if a temperature gauge was near I-10 in the summer, we would set a high temperature record every day the sun is out.
Track Santa This Christmas
NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, has been tracking Santa since 1958. You can watch Local2 Christmas Eve and we’ll update you as to where Santa is or you can Track Santa right here on NORAD’s website any time Saturday. It’s a funny story how NORAD started their Santa Tracker. In 1955 the department store Sears, in Colorado Springs, ran an ad for kids to call Santa at ME2-6681. The problem, this wasn’t the phone number to Santa Claus at Sears, it was the number to the Colorado Springs Continental Air Defense Command (CONAD). The people answering the phone didn’t know what to do when hundreds of calls came in asking for Santa. The Colonel told staffers to give the current location of Santa and the rest as they say is history. (On a side note: NORAD replaced CONAD in 1958.) Here is the newspaper ad.
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Hole Punch Clouds
Earlier this year I went to a weather conference and one of the talks was on hole punch clouds. The latest research shows they are not created by engine combustion at all. The first requirement is the clouds have to be vertically thin. Researchers then discovered that the clouds usually form beneath C-130 planes (shown below). Beneath the wings of these planes temperatures were around 14 degrees warmer than the rest of the plane and surrounding environment. This temperature difference created a dry punch of air falling from the sky evaporating the clouds beneath.
On a side note, a big thanks to Stephen Kornblitt who took this picture and sent it to Frank Billingsley. A lot of people said it looked photo shopped but our engineers at the station said it was authentic. Most hole punch clouds are circular. This one is unique because it looks like an outline of a plane or the state of Texas.
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Why A Total Lunar Eclipse is Red
According to atmospheric scientist Richard Keen of the University of Colorado, “During a lunar eclipse, most of the light illuminating the moon passes through the stratosphere where it is reddened by scattering. If the stratosphere is loaded with dust from volcanic eruptions, the eclipse will be dark; a clear stratosphere, on the other hand, produces a brighter eclipse. At the moment, the stratosphere is mostly clear with little input from recent volcanoes.” Also, as light passes by Earth’s atmosphere, short wavelengths, like blue, are scattered. By the time light finished its trip to the moon, only longer wavelengths, like red, remain. This is why the moon turns red during an eclipse!
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Total Lunar Eclipse Saturday
Click image to get a really good video explanation of what to expect with tomorrow’s total lunar eclipse.
Unfortunately, we aren’t in a good spot to view Saturday morning’s eclipse. At moon set, 7:07 a.m., we’ll see a partial eclipse but won’t get the full view because we are on the edge of moon falling into the earth’s shadow.
Saturday morning will also have some thick clouds, especially south of I-10, which will prevent us from seeing even the partial view we’ll have. If you are reading this and live on the west coast or Hawaii, get up early because our next total lunar eclipse won’t be until April 15, 2014.
Photo by: Loyd Overcash
The lunar eclipse seen from Houston on October 27, 2004.
Two of the really cool things about a total lunar eclipse is the moon appears a blood red or copperish orange. It will also appear bigger than it actually is in what is called a “moon illusion.” Low-hanging moons look unnaturally large when they beam through trees, buildings and other foreground objects. In fact, a low moon is no wider than any other moon (cameras prove it), but the human brain insists otherwise. To observers in the western USA, therefore, the eclipse will appear super-sized.
Freezing & Bursting Pipes
If you are concerned about your pipes bursting with our below freezing temperatures check out this publication, it’s an excellent source of information.
The temperature alert threshold for pipes to burst is 20 degrees.
The southern United States is more likely to have unprotected pipes because we rarely have temperatures in the 20s.
When there is a wind chill, the wind chill will accelerate the ice blockage.
*** A note about pools when the temperatures get into the lower 20s.*** I spoke with a pool expert and he told me let the pools pump run. The pool won’t freeze and letting it run will keep above freezing water flowing through the pipes.
Squirrel Watch Caption Contest
Tornadoes in Texas
Our state accounts for 10% of our nations tornadoes from 2000 to 2010.
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Track Lightning Strikes at Justweather.com
Lightning Image from 7:00 this morning.
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to see where lightning is striking.
Giant Weather Man
Congratulations Lori!
Congratulations to Lori Gollner, the winner of our Blue Bell Thanksgiving contest. Here is her letter:
“I am thankful for so much as my life has been full of Blessings. Even though I am an above knee amputee, which was due to a rare form of bone cancer, I am still thankful. Thankful that I am alive and healthy. Not only have I had cancer once but twice. Everyday I give God thanks for what he has given me and what he is continuing to do in my life. I recently had scans done and I am still cancer-free. I carry a smile on my face everyday and try to do good for others and encourage everyone I meet. Life is short and I am thankful for each day.
“
Enjoy your ice cream and have a wonderful Thanksgiving – Anthony
Storm Shots! Tuesday’s Tornadoes
Click image to view a slideshow of other damage from Tuesday’s storms.
The National Weather Service has completed their surveys of Tuesday’s damage. The Kingwood tornado has been classified as an EF1 (86-110 mph winds). Here is what it found.
“A National Weather Service storm survey has determined that Tuesday’s storm produced an EF-1 tornado in Kingwood located in far northeastern Harris County. The approximate track length of this tornado was one mile and its maximum path width was estimated to be 150 yards. The time of the tornado was approximately 1:37 pm.
“This system produced widespread damage: numerous trees snapped or uprooted … four garage doors blown in … and window and roof damage to numerous homes. Most of the damage occurred along Hidden Lakes Drive. The starting point of the track looks to be near the intersection of Willow Terrace Drive and Hidden Lakes Drive.
“A second storm survey was done just north of Texas City at the ISP plant where minor damage occurred around 6 pm. It was estimated an EF-0 tornado did minor damage in the plant with the main damage being 10 empty trailers that were flipped over by the weak tornado. The length of the path was 1/2 mile long and 25 yards wide.”
This picture was taken by Cierra Grace in Crosby, not a tornado but straight line wind damage.
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The Weather Models & The Weather Channel
Eric Bickel is a high school friend and is now leads the Graduate Program in Operations Research at the University of Texas. One of the projects he did was compare the National Weather Service, The Weather Channel and a private forecasting company forecasts to each other. The research can be found here:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011MWR3525.1
One of his findings that I found interesting was that the Weather Channel’s performance decreases markedly after six days. After interviewing some of the meteorologists, Bickel learned that human forecasters rarely intervene in forecasts beyond six days. So basically the forecasts come straight from the computer models. This is a good example how human forecasters add considerable skill to what the numerical, statistical and climatological models provide.
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You Won’t See a 50% Chance of Rain
Eric Bickel is a high school friend and is now leads the Graduate Program in Operations Research at the University of Texas. The joke is we were probably the most unlikely pair from high school to get into science-related jobs. One of the projects he did was compare the National Weather Service, The Weather Channel and a private forecasting company forecasts to each other. The findings are interesting and can be found here:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011MWR3525.1
The key to a good forecast is having sharpness and resolution. Resolution, for example, is if you say there is a 40% chance of rain it will rain 40% of the time, or four out of every ten days you put 40%. Sharpness is if you say it’s going to rain it will rain, or if you say it won’t rain, it doesn’t. Sharpness is giving some certainty to the forecast. In a normal year, without a drought, if I put a 30% chance of rain every day, by the end of the year my forecast will have good resolution because it will have rained on average once every three days. However, I’ll have poor sharpness because I’m never really saying if it is going to rain or not.
One of the things that stuck out to me from Eric’s work was the Weather Channel avoids putting a 20% and 50% chance of precipitation. The 50% omission is intentional. The Weather Channel believes that users will interpret a 50% chance of rain as a lack of knowledge (after all there are only two possible outcomes), when, in fact, a forecast of 50% is more than twice the climatological average and thus a strong statement regarding the chance of precipitation. Bickel shows in his paper how this policy degrades the quality of their forecasts.
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Cloud Streets
Howard Stout took this picture at his home in Santa Fe.
Here is another view of cloud streets from space.
When the low-level air begins to rise, clouds can form. Some days there is a layer of stable air above, and that limits the vertical extent of the convection. If the wind is fairly uniform the clouds can form “streets”. You’ll get parallel lines of clouds alternating with the clear skies. These gaps are caused by the rising/sinking air produced by the rotating horizontal cylinders in the atmosphere.
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Weather Quiz Archive #5
The original idea in the late 1800s was to have cannons fire automatically to warn people of an oncoming tornado. It was never put into practice. Today sirens go off when the National Weather Service issues a tornado warning. You will always get tornado warnings or any weather warnings when it is issued right here on Local 2.
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